THE LEAN 1-2-3 NEWSLETTER

The cognitive bias that's killing your startup (and how to beat it)

Hi there -

Here's the brutal reality: most startups don't fail because of a lack of funding, poor timing, or tough competition. They fail because they build something nobody wants.

And here's where most founders go wrong—they become prematurely obsessed with their solution before validating the most critical parts of their business model.

I call this the Innovator's Bias, and it happens to everyone.

As with any cognitive bias, the key isn't trying to avoid it (that's usually impossible), but instead building systems that sidestep the bias entirely.

Here is this week's "1 principle, 2 strategies, and 3 actionable tactics" for running lean…

1 Universal Principle

"Start with problems, not solutions."

When you've already decided to build a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail. This is how you fall into the Innovator's Bias trap.

The key to sidestepping this bias is to view your idea from a completely different perspective. Like a prosecutor in court, you need to be able to make an ironclad case for your idea without relying on your solution.

This is why I created the Lean(er) Canvas—a simplified version of the Lean Canvas that zeros in on just two crucial boxes: Customer Segment and Problem.

This customer-problem foundation holds up your entire business model. Get these wrong, and everything else falls apart.

2 Underlying Strategies at Play

I. The missing solution box is intentional.

When describing their idea, most founders naturally start with their solution. They ask:

  • "Who's the ideal customer for my solution?"
  • "What problems can I solve with my solution?"

This backward approach suffers from the hammer problem. Instead, focus on describing problems your customers encounter when using existing alternatives—not problems you can solve with your solution.

This subtle perspective shift is often the difference between inventing fake problems to justify your solution and uncovering real problems worth solving.

II. Make a case for why your solution needs to exist.

You can stress-test any idea for desirability, viability, and feasibility using just the customer-problem quadrant:

Desirability: Are these problems familiar, specific, and compelling enough to grab attention?

Viability: Are customers already spending time, money, and effort to solve these problems?

Feasibility: Can you build a different and compelling solution to these problems?

If you can't confidently answer yes to all three, you don't have a viable startup idea yet.

3 Actionable Tactics

I. Sketch a Lean(er) Canvas.

If you haven't already, you can create a free Lean Canvas account ​here​ and toggle the Lean(er) Canvas.

II. Fill the boxes in a specific order.

Under Customer Segment, write:

  • Who are your target customers?
  • Who are your early adopters specifically?
  • What makes them different from mainstream customers?

Under Problem, identify:

  • What existing alternatives do they use today?
  • What's broken with these alternatives?
  • List those specific problems

III. Apply the 5-minute stress test.

Ask yourself:

  • Are these problems compelling enough to stop customers in their tracks?
  • Is there evidence that customers are already paying to solve these problems?
  • Can you realistically build a better alternative?

This simple exercise creates a solid foundation for your business model. The beauty is that you don't need to worry about complex technical questions until you've first validated that you're addressing a real problem for real customers.

Problems and solutions are two sides of the same coin. Most people start with a solution and search for problems. But when the biggest risk is building something nobody wants, it's smarter to reverse this order.

That's all for today. See you next week.

Ash
Author of ​​Running Lean​​ and creator of ​​Lean Canvas​

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P.S. This week's video:

P.P.S. If you watch until the end, it includes a breakdown of how to use a Lean(er) Canvas to model and stress-test breakthrough ideas like Netflix, Airbnb, Dropbox, Tesla, and the iPhone.

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