THE LEAN 1-2-3 NEWSLETTER

The Evidence Ladder: Validate Before You Build

Hi there -

Here is this week's "1 principle, 2 strategies, and 3 actionable tactics" for running lean...

1 Universal Principle

“What people say they’ll do, seldom matches up with what they actually do.”

In 2004, I spent two years and $500K building 6Degrees, only to launch to crickets. Despite a 1,000-person waitlist, we ended up with just a handful of users and zero paying customers.

The warning signs were there—prospects saying “That sounds interesting” instead of “I need this NOW”—but the Innovator’s Bias kept me from seeing them.

2 Underlying Strategies at Play

I. The Evidence Ladder Framework

Four levels determine validation strength:

  • Level 1: Stated Interest (Worthless)
  • Level 2: Active Searching (Valuable)
  • Level 3: Paying for Existing Solutions (Gold)
  • Level 4: Prepaying for Your Solution (Jackpot)

II. The Demo-Sell-Build Process

Use the 20-10-7 Rule:

  • Talk to 20 prospects to understand problems
  • Pitch to 10 ideal early adopters
  • Secure 7 tangible commitments before building

3 Actionable Tactics

I. Ask The Magic Question

Instead of “Would you use this?” ask “What are you currently doing to solve this problem?”

II. Follow the Money

Identify where customers are already spending money - even on bad solutions.

III. Build Only What You Sold

Deliver exactly what you demonstrated to pre-paying customers, nothing more.

Short and sweet...That’s all for today. See you next week.

Ash Author of Running Lean and creator of Lean Canvas

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P.S.

I do a complete overhaul of courses each year and decided to follow Apple's new year-based versioning scheme (less confusing).

Early access versions of Business Model Design (BMD-26), Demand Validation Playbook (DVP-26), and Value Delivery Playbook (VDP-26) will start showing up in your spaces before Monday.

There are also 2-pack and ​3-pack bundles​ (with discounts) if you prefer getting multiple playbooks at once.

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P.P.S. Check out this week’s video:

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