Hi there -
I wasted $47,000 and 18 months building the same idea that Facebook made billions from.
The difference? They passed a simple timing test I didn't even know existed.
In 2001, I built "6Degrees" - a private social network. Great idea, solid tech, positive feedback from friends. But I was two to three years too early. When Facebook launched in 2004 with essentially the same concept, it exploded while I struggled to gain users.
That failure taught me a brutal lesson that changed everything about how I approach new ideas.
Here is this week's "1 principle, 2 strategies, and 3 actionable tactics" for running lean
1 Universal Principle
“Test timing before building - it trumps everything else.”
Bill Gross studied hundreds of companies across five factors: idea quality, team, business model, funding, and timing. He expected the idea or team to rank highest. Instead, timing was the #1 factor determining success or failure.
Google wasn't the first search engine. Ford didn't build the first automobile. Tesla didn't create the first electric car. None were first movers - they were fast followers with better timing.
The good news? Timing isn't luck. Three specific signals show when an idea's time has come.
2 Underlying Strategies at Play
I. Timing beats being first.
Facebook succeeded because they understood that people wanted public social sharing, not private networking. They caught a behavioral shift I missed completely. Being too early to market is actually worse than being too late because you waste years waiting for the market to catch up.
II. Systematic timing analysis prevents expensive mistakes.
Instead of gambling with years of your life, you can systematically test for timing signals in under 5 minutes. This isn't about predicting the future - it's about reading current market conditions that signal change.
3 Actionable Tactics
I. Run an Inflection Check.
List 3 external changes happening right now that make your idea possible or necessary. Technology shifts, behavioral changes, regulatory updates - what's breaking the old way and enabling the new way?
II. Measure Impact Stakes.
Identify what's getting more expensive, painful, or impossible with the current approach. Then quantify the measurable benefit your new approach provides. Is the switching cost worth it?
III. Document Your Key Insight.
What do you believe about this opportunity that most people disagree with or don't see yet? This is your Peter Thiel "secret" - obvious in hindsight, but requiring foresight to see now.
This 5-minute framework could save you years of building in the wrong direction.
Want the complete Timing Trifecta methodology with detailed worksheets and real case studies?
That's exactly what I teach in the Timing module of my Business Model Design Challenge, along with the complete systematic approach for validating and building successful business models.
Check out the BMD Challenge here →
Ash
Author of Running Lean and creator of Lean Canvas
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P.S.
Check out his week's video:
